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Assumptions Register

Status: Draft
Source file: 01 Scoping/03-assumptions-register.md
Sensitivity review: Completed

This register identifies assumptions that must be tested. Assumptions are not findings.

ID Assumption Why it exists Evidence required Perspective affected Risk if incorrect Priority
A1 There is genuine demand for Australian industrial hemp products. Public commentary often presents hemp as a growing market. Product-specific prices, volumes, buyers, contracts, import/export data and quality specifications. Producer, Supply Chain Producers may grow into shallow or inaccessible markets. High
A2 Demand is relevant to the Granite Borders region. Demand may exist elsewhere but not be accessible locally. Freight economics, processor access, buyer location, regional scale requirements. Producer, Supply Chain Market demand may not translate into viable local opportunity. High
A3 Hemp can be profitable for producers. Profitability is central to adoption. Enterprise budgets, realistic yields, input costs, labour, compliance, harvest and transport costs. Producer Farmers may face negative margins despite positive headline prices. High
A4 Hemp can compete with existing enterprises. Opportunity cost matters for land-use decisions. Comparative gross margins and risk profiles for existing and alternative land uses. Producer, Environment A crop may be viable in isolation but inferior to alternatives. High
A5 Processing infrastructure exists or can be accessed. Hemp often requires processing before sale. Processor capacity, fees, intake terms, location, quality specs and minimum volumes. Producer, Supply Chain Production may be stranded without viable processing. High
A6 Processors and buyers are commercially reliable. Supply chain failure can transfer risk to growers. Counterparty history, contract terms, capacity utilisation, payment terms and market channels. Producer, Supply Chain Growers may carry risk from weak downstream businesses. High
A7 Regional climate and soils are suitable. Suitability cannot be assumed from broader Australian experience. Climate, soil, water, variety, sowing window, frost, heat, pest and disease evidence. Producer, Environment Poor suitability could undermine yield and environmental outcomes. High
A8 Hemp has environmental benefits. Hemp is frequently associated with sustainability claims. Measured soil, water, biodiversity, chemical-use, carbon and lifecycle evidence. Environment, GBLC GBLC could endorse weak or context-dependent environmental claims. High
A9 Environmental benefits exceed realistic alternatives. Benefits only matter relative to actual land-use choices. Comparator land-use data and comparative environmental indicators. Environment, GBLC, Producer Analysis may overstate benefits by using an unfair baseline. High
A10 Hemp aligns with Landcare objectives. Potential environmental and regional-development fit is plausible but untested. GBLC objectives, member priorities, environmental evidence and role options. GBLC Organisational time or reputation may be misallocated. High
A11 Community perceptions will not materially constrain the project. Hemp may be misunderstood or politically sensitive. Stakeholder views, communications risk assessment, regulatory context. GBLC, Producer Confusion with cannabis may create reputational or adoption barriers. Medium
A12 Legal and licensing requirements are manageable. Compliance is essential for production and supply chains. Current NSW, Queensland and Commonwealth requirements, costs and obligations. Producer, Supply Chain, GBLC Non-compliance risk or administrative burden may reduce viability. High
A13 Sufficient data will be publicly available. Some market and cost data may be proprietary. Source availability review and primary research plan. All Weak evidence base may limit confidence. High
A14 International evidence is transferable. Some hemp evidence may come from Canada, the United States, Europe or New Zealand. Climate, system, regulation, scale and market-comparability assessment. Producer, Supply Chain, Environment Imported evidence may mislead local decisions. Medium
A15 A demonstration or extension role would be low risk. Landcare organisations often facilitate trials and education. Risk assessment, partner due diligence, evidence thresholds, member appetite. GBLC Demonstration activities could be interpreted as endorsement. Medium
A16 Benefits and risks are evenly distributed. Regional-development projects can imply shared benefit. Perspective-specific analysis by producers, processors, buyers, GBLC and environment. All One stakeholder group may benefit while another carries costs. High
A17 Crop establishment and harvesting services are available. Specialised equipment may be required. Machinery availability, contractor access, harvest timing and cost data. Producer Production may be technically possible but operationally impractical. Medium
A18 Water requirements are compatible with regional systems. Water use can determine both economics and environmental impact. Rainfall, irrigation, crop water-use and water access evidence. Producer, Environment Water constraints could undermine suitability or environmental claims. High