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Question Hierarchy

Status: Draft
Source file: 01 Scoping/02-question-hierarchy.md
Sensitivity review: Completed

Level 1 Core Decision Question

Does industrial hemp represent a commercially viable and environmentally beneficial opportunity for agricultural producers and regional communities within the Granite Borders region?

Level 2 Assessment Themes

  1. Commercial viability for agricultural producers.
  2. Commercial viability for supply chains.
  3. Regional suitability.
  4. Environmental outcomes.
  5. Strategic relevance to Granite Borders Landcare.

Question Matrix

ID Research question Evidence that would answer it Evidence that would partially answer it Insufficient evidence Perspective
Q1 Is there verifiable market demand for industrial hemp products relevant to Australian producers? Transaction evidence, buyer specifications, market volumes, prices, import/export data and purchase terms by product category. Industry reports, buyer interviews, trade articles or association estimates without transaction detail. Promotional claims, forecast-only market growth figures, unverified buyer interest. Producer, Supply Chain
Q2 Which hemp product categories are most relevant to the region? Product-specific demand, price, processing, agronomy and logistics evidence. National or international category summaries with clear transferability caveats. General statements about "hemp" without product separation. Producer, Supply Chain, Environment
Q3 Can producers achieve positive gross margins under realistic regional conditions? Enterprise budgets using local or comparable yield, input, labour, machinery, water, transport and price data. Budgets from other Australian regions adjusted with stated assumptions. Headline price or yield claims without cost structure. Producer
Q4 What scale of production is required for viable production and market access? Evidence of minimum contract volumes, processing thresholds, freight economics and machinery requirements. Interview estimates or processor guidance requiring confirmation. Anecdotal views without volume or cost detail. Producer, Supply Chain
Q5 What agronomic conditions determine suitability in the Granite Borders region? Climate, soil, rainfall, irrigation, frost, heat, variety, sowing window, pest, disease and harvest data from comparable regions. Broader Australian agronomic guidance with local comparison. Generic crop suitability statements. Producer, Environment
Q6 How does hemp compare economically with existing or realistic alternative enterprises? Comparative gross margins and risk profiles for grazing, mixed farming, lucerne, oats, sorghum, forestry, restoration or other regional enterprises. Partial comparisons for selected enterprises. Hemp-only profitability analysis. Producer, GBLC, Environment
Q7 Does processing infrastructure exist at the scale, quality and location required? Processor capacity, location, fees, specifications, intake windows, contracts and logistics costs. Processor lists or industry maps without capacity verification. Assumption that infrastructure exists because processors operate somewhere in Australia. Supply Chain, Producer
Q8 Are supply chain participants economically viable and reliable counterparties? Processor, buyer and exporter business model evidence, operating history, capacity utilisation, payment terms and market channels. Interviews and public profiles requiring corroboration. Unverified claims of future facilities or intended demand. Supply Chain, Producer
Q9 What regulatory requirements affect production, processing, movement and sale? Current state and Commonwealth legal requirements, licensing rules, THC thresholds, transport, food/fibre rules and compliance costs. Government guidance requiring legal interpretation. Informal views or outdated regulations. Producer, Supply Chain, GBLC
Q10 What environmental outcomes could change under hemp production? Measured evidence for soil cover, soil carbon, biodiversity, water, chemical use, emissions and lifecycle impacts by production system. Studies from comparable climates or systems with transferability caveats. Broad sustainability claims without measured outcomes. Environment, GBLC
Q11 What is the realistic environmental comparator? Regional land use and enterprise data identifying plausible alternatives and baseline practices. Regional agricultural profiles that need refinement. Comparing hemp with an unrealistic or undefined baseline. Environment, Producer
Q12 Could hemp support regional development or community outcomes? Evidence of jobs, value adding, processing, local spend and skills under realistic scale assumptions. Case studies from other regions with caveats. Multipliers or claims without scale and causality. GBLC, Supply Chain
Q13 What role could Granite Borders Landcare play without compromising independence? Options analysis comparing education, convening, demonstration, partnership, advocacy or no-action roles against mission fit and risk. Stakeholder views and comparable Landcare activities. Assuming involvement is justified by crop potential alone. GBLC
Q14 What are the main risks, uncertainties and failure modes? Evidence register gaps, sensitivity analysis, stakeholder disagreement, market volatility and regulatory risk assessment. Risk lists from comparable industries. Optimistic scenario only. All
Q15 What minimum evidence threshold is required before recommending any action? Predefined decision rules covering evidence strength, confidence level, stakeholder perspective and unresolved gaps. Qualitative judgement with transparent caveats. Recommendation based on interest, novelty or single-source claims. All

Missing or Easily Overlooked Questions

  • What happens if production succeeds but processing or offtake fails?
  • What happens if demand exists only at a price below producer viability?
  • How sensitive are results to yield, price, freight distance, irrigation access, labour and compliance cost?
  • Does the crop compete for scarce water, labour, machinery or management attention?
  • Are there biosecurity, weed, contamination, residue or cross-border compliance risks?
  • What evidence would justify Granite Borders Landcare doing nothing?
  • Which claims are material enough to require verification through more than one source?

Evidence Thresholds

Evidence level Description Appropriate use
Strong Multiple credible and independent sources, preferably with measured data or transactions. Decision-critical findings.
Moderate Credible source or limited triangulation, with transparent limitations. Supporting findings and provisional conclusions.
Weak Single source, promotional material, unclear method or poor geographic fit. Gap identification only.
Not sufficient Unsupported opinion, vague claim, forecast without assumptions or non-comparable evidence. Do not use as a finding.